Campaign Polls: Why It Looks Like Obama Might Lose Florida

Oct 24, 2012

Support for President Obama has declined so radically in South Florida that it will cost him the state on election day.

That's what Tony Man at the Sun Sentinel reported over the weekend after taking a look at modeling and projections prepared by Moody's Analytics. Moody's predicted Obama would win the Democratic strongholds of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties but by margins too small to leverage the rest of the state.

Loyal But Small: Obama support in South Florida is enough to carry the three counties but not to deliver the state.
Credit Tyjamo-old on flickr

Florida will go to Mitt Romney, Moody's projected. And now, there may be new evidence. Independent political reporter Buddy Nevins at says polls conducted by individual campaigns in Broward are finding the same thing: winning but too-weak support for President Obama that spells advantage for Romney.

In 2008, Obama won Broward by 254,909.  He won the state by 236,450.

A 55 percent win would drop Obama’s victory margin here to under 200,000, far below what his re-election campaign had hoped.

Grass roots Democrats blame the economy and some Jewish voters, who abandoned the president because they believe he has not done enough for Israel.

Nevins, who has covered Broward politics for decades, apparently saw more than one poll but he did not identify the campaigns that provided the information.

Although Moody's was bearish on South Florida in the study it released in September, it  also predicted that President Obama would win the whole election with 303 electoral votes. It's supposed to issue new projections this week.