Tropical Development Possible In The Gulf Next Week

Sep 24, 2015

The last six tropical storms to develop in the Atlantic Basin haven't made it through the so-called El Niño barrier in the Caribbean.

This is where upper level winds have been too strong to support upscale development or even passage of a storm. Two have tried (Danny, Erika), but the others haven't even come close (Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida).

A new but controversial study asks if an end is coming to the busy Atlantic hurricane seasons of recent decades.

The Atlantic looks like it is entering in to a new quieter cycle of storm activity, like in the 1970s and 1980s, two prominent hurricane researchers wrote Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Monroe County Public Library

  Eighty years ago, hurricanes weren't given human names. So the storm that devastated the Upper Keys in 1935 is known simply by the day it swept across Islamorada: the Labor Day Hurricane.

Islamorada in 1935 was a small village of a few hundred people, scraping through the Depression growing Key limes and pineapples. The village was also the site of a camp for hundreds more: relief workers building a highway. Most of those workers were World War I veterans.

Miami Herald

Even with all the radar technology that's available, it's hard to predict what any storm will do (i.e. Hurricane Jeanne). Let's face it, mother nature is not easy to predict.

Erika, which threatened South Florida last week,  was frustrating to forecasters because it didn't want to behave the way some models had pegged it. But, that's not completely unusual according to James Franklin. He oversees forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. 

What about Erika made it hard to forecast? 

Erika Dissolves, Heavy Rain Still Possible In Florida

Aug 29, 2015
Florida Public Radio Emergency Network

Tropical Storm Erika proved to be no match for the volatile conditions aloft and the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola.

As of 9:30 a.m. Saturday morning, the storm had dissolved into a tropical wave.

The National Hurricane Center issued their final advisory on the tropical cyclone, stating that hurricane hunters were unable to find an organized center of circulation.

C.M. Guerrero / El Nuevo Herald

With Tropical Storm Erika on a course to barrel into Florida, Gov. Rick Scott on Friday declared a state of emergency for the entire state.

The executive order pointed to updated forecasts from the National Hurricane Center indicating the storm likely will "travel up the spine of Florida's peninsula." Erika is now expected to remain a tropical storm, rather than turn into a more-powerful hurricane.

FPREN / Courtesy

With Tropical Storm Erika, the second major storm to threaten Florida this hurricane season, making its way across the Atlantic, all South Florida residents should take steps to be prepared in case of tropical weather.

It's been 10 years since the last major hurricane hit South Florida, so we'd like to help you find and dust off your hurricane supplies.

Florida Remains in Path of Tropical Storm Erika

Aug 26, 2015

Ten years to the week that Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast after making initial landfall in Florida, another storm appears to be bearing down on the Sunshine State.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Erika is less than five days from potential landfall in the state and nearly all of Florida’s east coast lies within the cone of uncertainty.

At the state Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee, things are still relatively quiet right now, but the center has been partially activated in advance of the storm.

The National Hurricane Center has put Puerto Rico, and some surrounding islands in the Caribbean, under a tropical storm warning as Tropical Storm Erika gains strength in the Atlantic.

The warning means that residents of the island should expect tropical storm winds and heavy rain in the next 36 hours.

Here's the five-day forecast put out by the Hurricane Center:

The Miami Herald explains:

Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

Remember Hurricane Danny roaring out in the Atlantic last week with 115-mile-an-hour gusts? When it reached Puerto Rico this morning it was wheezing.

That’s a big relief for the Caribbean islands – but it also reflects a big problem out there.

The same abnormal climate conditions that helped deflate Danny are also responsible for the some of the worst drought the Caribbean has seen in two decades.

RELATED: The Danger Of Hurricane Complacency